The numbers are in, and they're awkward. A National Bureau of Economic Research study surveying 6,000 executives across four countries found that nearly 90% of firms say AI has had zero measurable impact on jobs being created by AI or productivity over the past three years. About two-thirds of executives reported using AI at all. Those who did averaged just 1.5 hours per week. A quarter of respondents don't touch AI tools in the workplace. Companies poured more than $250 billion into AI, including Copilot, in 2024 alone. The return so far is roughly nothing.
CEOs admit AI hasn't moved the needle on jobs or productivity
A National Bureau of Economic Research study found nearly 90% of firms reported AI has had no impact on employment or productivity over the last three years, even as two-thirds of executives say they use it. The catch: those users average just 1.5 hours per week. Economists are comparing this to Solow's productivity paradox from the 1980s IT era, with predictions ranging from 0.5% to 2.7% productivity increases depending on the study.
