Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are building new memory factories. They're mostly for AI data centers, not your laptop. Nikkei Asia reports the big three will meet just 60% of global RAM demand by late 2027. Production needs to grow 12% annually to keep up, per Counterpoint Research. Only 7.5% is actually planned.
The effects are already hitting stores. Meta raised the Quest 3 by $100, citing RAM costs. Samsung hiked Galaxy prices. Gaming handhelds are creeping up too. SK Group's chairman has said the shortage could stretch to 2030. New fabrication plants won't produce anything until 2027 or 2028, and most of that capacity targets high-bandwidth memory for AI servers, not the generic DRAM that goes into phones and laptops.
US export controls from October 2022 made things worse. The Bureau of Industry and Security blocked China from importing advanced lithography equipment from companies like ASML, capping domestic manufacturers at older process nodes. Yangtze Memory Technologies can't make NAND beyond 128 layers. ChangXin Memory Technologies can't produce DRAM below 18nm. In previous memory crunches, Chinese firms scaled up to fill gaps. The sanctions eliminated that safety valve.
Software optimizations help at the margins. Google's TurboQuant, now integrated into llama.cpp, cuts KV cache memory use by 6x for AI inference workloads. But clever code can't fix a 40% physical supply deficit. If you're spec-ing out hardware for agents or just buying a phone, expect to pay more for RAM through the end of the decade.